ACCU price signals: What flat lines are really telling us

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Reading beyond the charts to understand where the real market activity is happening

If you’re tracking ACCU prices, it’s tempting to look at the charts and assume stability equals confidence. However, in this market a flat line often means something else entirely: no trades, no movement and no new information.

That’s especially true when you look further into prices by method. The method types tell a bigger story than the generic price ever will. But you have to read them carefully. Some are starting to find their footing, others still feel like placeholders. One in particular seems to be drifting without much of a story behind it.

So what is really going on behind those flat lines?

A price that doesn’t move isn’t really a price

Before diving into Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) prices , it helps to understand what they actually are. SMCs are a type of carbon credit earned by large industrial facilities when they emit less than their government set baselines under the Safeguard Mechanism. These credits reflect real, measured reductions in emissions from operations like mining, gas or manufacturing.

Unlike most ACCUs, which are generated from land-based projects such as reforestation or soil carbon improvements, SMCs come from compliance over-performance.

When these industrial facilities miss their targets they are required to buy ACCUs to offset emissions which are above their baseline target. SMC buyers are usually focused on cost and often go for the lowest-priced credits. Voluntary buyers tend to prioritise quality and credibility.

In recent months, method-specific prices including savanna fire management (SFM), environmental planting (EP), and soil carbon (SC), have appeared stable on price charts. The clean lines are misleading, because there is very little actual trading taking place.

ACCU Spot Price by Method: Graph shows the flat lines and minor price movements across different methods meaning that prices look stable but trading is often inactive.

Without fresh transactions, the price doesn’t react to changes in sentiment, policy or supply. What you are seeing isn’t a true market value. It’s just the last price someone agreed to.

Flat lines with no volatility are not necessarily an indicator of price stability.

Volume reveals the truth

The key thread across all of this is volume. You cannot understand this market by price alone. You need to look at what’s actually being traded.

In the latest Core Markets report from June 2025:

  • The generic ACCU price inched up to $35.50, demonstrating steady overall demand.

  • Prices for specific methods like SC and SFM show little or no movement, indicating low trading volumes and possibly low demand. The generic/SMC/HIR price remained fairly stable, but did show greater trading volumes.

  • Meanwhile, forward trading increased to more than 560,000 units, telling us that market participants are locking in prices for future delivery. This lets them manage risk and position themselves ahead of expected policy changes.

This shows that the real activity is focused on future contracts rather than immediate trades. Market participants are thinking ahead and managing their risk amid uncertainty.

Meanwhile, spot trading - buying and selling carbon credits for immediate delivery, especially for some methods such as SFM, SC and EP - remains thin and irregular. The flat price lines we see for these methods tell a story of a lack of trading activity rather than genuine market confidence. This could mean that prices aren’t changing because they aren’t being actively traded.

Where this is all heading?

The good news is that the market is maturing and people are thinking longer term. They are using forwards and derivatives (agreements to buy or sell credits at a fixed price in the future). These tools help buyers and sellers manage risk and protect themselves against sudden price changes. At the same time, they are watching policy closely in order to anticipate how rules might change. That is exactly the kind of market behaviour we want to see.

Liquidity for some methods is low and there are still ongoing concerns around creditability and reliability. Without more consistent trading across a broader range of methods, prices don’t tell the full market story.

For now, when looking at ACCU price charts, we should be still cautious. Without the volume behind them, prices aren’t real, they are just figures from past trades rather than a current market value.

Want to know more?

Environmental planting and soil carbon methods have strong foundations and growing credibility, but building trust through regular trading is key to unlocking their full market value.

Check out our follow-up blog exploring the performance, market dynamics and future outlook for EP, soil carbon and HIR (human-induced regeneration) credits: ACCU methods unpacked: What’s driving real value?

References

A snapshot of the whole market

If you want to look at how the market is moving and where the real momentum lies, check out our blog article How the ACCU project market is shaping up.

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