Landowner’s guide to Australia’s growing ACCU market

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Understanding prices in the carbon credit market: Where the market is heading and how landholders can benefit

Carbon credits are becoming a serious asset for landholders across Australia. With increasing pressure on industries to reduce emissions, credits offer a way for farmers and landowners to develop a new income stream, at the same time as helping to fight climate change. This means understanding the market, Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices, and the integrity behind these credits.

The carbon credit market is growing fast

Australia’s carbon credit market is booming. Its size is forecast to grow from about AUD 15 billion in 2024, to more than AUD 230 billion by 2034, according to a report by Expert Market Research. The report says strong government policies and growing corporate demand to meet climate goals, are amongst the trends supporting future growth:

“The Australian carbon market is on a steep growth curve with demand expected to multiply over the next decade.”

A growing market means more opportunities for landholders to generate income by improving carbon storage on their land. Whether it is through environmental planting, soil carbon projects, or reforestation, these carbon projects are turning good land management into a valuable commodity.

Why are ACCU prices rising?

Like any other commodity, the price of carbon credits is determined by supply and demand. And with demand rising faster than supply, the price of ACCUs is predicted to continue increasing. The Safeguard Mechanism, Australia’s key policy tool for cutting emissions, is pushing large emitters to buy more credits to offset their pollution. This means that the supply of high-quality, verified credits needs to keep up with demand.

For landholders, the value of carbon offsets could get significantly higher than it was just a few years ago. But according to Carbon Units, this increase requires credits to be credible and meet market standards:

“The Safeguard Mechanism is creating a strong demand pull, but the challenge remains ensuring the supply of ACCUs is real, permanent and verified.”

Integrity matters as not all credits are created equal

Just because a project is registered and generating credits does not mean every offset is equal or even real. Integrity in the carbon market is critical. This means credits must represent genuine, additional and verifiable, outcomes.

The Carbon Market Institute has been clear that for the Australian market to succeed, reforms are needed to improve transparency and ensure credits represent verifiable reductions in greenhouse gases:

“Transparency and robust measurement are essential for maintaining confidence in the market.”

Without this, landholders risk putting in the work without the financial reward, or worse, being tied to credits that do not hold up under scrutiny. It is important to understand how carbon is measured on the land and to work with experts who can give advice on well-structured monitoring and reporting.

What does success mean for landowners?

The carbon credit market presents a massive opportunity for landholders, especially those with land suited to agricultural offset projects. But success depends on a few things:

  • Project quality and permanence. Focus on projects that genuinely increase carbon sequestration, such as through better soil management or planting native vegetation or trees.

  • Measurement and verification. Carbon gains must be reliably measured and be verified over time. This is where some projects struggle, and planning is key.

  • Long-term commitment. Carbon projects require ongoing management and monitoring. They are not quick fixes but investments in land health and long-term resilience.

Landowners who get this right can generate a steady income stream, whilst improving their land’s productivity and resilience.

Looking forward: the market will keep evolving

Analysts forecast continued rapid growth in the Australian carbon credit market over the next decade, driven by changing regulations and increased demand. This means prices are not likely to fall anytime soon, according to an in-depth report by MarkNtel Advisors:

“The growth of the carbon credit market presents a long-term opportunity for landholders willing to engage with market requirements.”

For landholders, staying informed and connected to the market is essential.
It is worth seeking expert advice to assess your land’s carbon potential
and navigate the complex rules and standards.

An opportunity to build lasting value

Carbon credits offer landholders a way to turn good land management into real financial value. But it’s not just about signing up for a project and hoping for the best. Understanding the market, focusing on credible and measurable carbon reductions, and committing to long-term management are all vital.

The market is growing, prices are rising, and the demand for genuine greenhouse gas reductions is stronger than ever. The opportunity is there, but it comes with responsibility.

If you want to explore what your land might be worth in carbon credits, start by getting a clear picture of your soil, vegetation and current management. Then look for partners who prioritise integrity and transparency.

Read more about Australia’s carbon neutral scheme in Carbon credits that deliver: rebuilding trust in net zero

References

Want to know more?

Check out Dig it or plant it? Choosing the right carbon offset path, a closer look at pros and cons of tree planting versus soil carbon projects.

Want to know what potential your land has in the carbon market?

Download your free report: tailored for your property address

Access our carbon insights and tools at no cost

Analytics Dashboard: Get an aggregated view of ACCU projects, proponents and market insights.

Project Explorer: Uncover the geographic distribution of Australian ACCU Carbon projects

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